President Linda Anderson called the meeting to order and opened the meeting by acknowledging with gratitude, mutual respect & reciprocity, the ancestral home, cultural & oral teachings of the Treaty 7 signatories which includes the Siksika, the Kainai, the Piikani, the Stoney Nakoda and the Tsuut’ina nations. We also recognize the Metis people of Alberta Region 3 who call Treaty 7 their home The club members and guests were then asked to stand to sing O Canada. Garfield Ganong introduced our “in person” visitors and guests: - Gabriel Kuiack, son of our member Steve Kuiack
- Arman Schaefer, guest of Steve Kuiack
- Riham Yassin, guest of Mona Wasfy
Vivian Jones introduced a prospective member Joyce Lou. Rotary International Moment: As we enter 2023, we should ask ourselves – why people leave Rotary: - For those under 40 – life changing event, club environment, cost or time commitment.
- For those over 40 -60 - Club environment, cost or time commitment or unmet expectations
- For those over 60 – life changing event, club environment, cost or time constraints.
In all those groups there are factors we can’t control. However one main reason in all 3 groups was the “Club Environment”. In our goal of inclusion, equity & equality, each of us need to make every effort to improve our Club Environment – talk more with each other & in particular to new members, learn more about them, their lives, and goals. Be kinder and in all areas simile more. Saadat Keshavjee introduced our guest speaker Rob Roach – Alberta Economic Outlook. |
| As the Deputy Chief Economist at ATB Financial, Rob is laser-focused on the Alberta economy, the forces that shape it and the challenges and opportunities affecting the prosperity of Albertans. He is the co-author (with Todd Hirsch) of three books: "The Boiling Frog Dilemma: Saving Canada From Economic Decline," "Spiders in Space: Successfully Adapting to Unwanted Change," and "Spiders in COVID Space: Adapting During and After the Pandemic." As Vice-President of Research with the Canada West Foundation, Rob had the opportunity to work on a broad array of topics including the economy, local government, demographic trends, the non-profit sector, public opinion, regional cooperation, environmental policy, democratic reform and public finance. Rob is passionate about art, equality and inclusion. He recently served as the Chair of the National access Arts Centre--Canada's largest and oldest disability arts organization. Rob also teaches courses on local government for the University of Alberta. |
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Rough Waters Ahead – But there are some bright spots as well! Rob provided a Top 10 Point overview of where we are likely headed during 2023. #10 - Alberta has a very strong economy. - Alberta has the highest GDP per capita in the country even during the lean years.
- We have a very young population & highly educated workforce
#9 – The Invasion of Ukraine - On an economic basis, there have been many negative consequences (food prices, energy costs etc.) and there is no end in sight.
- Recessions are being felt and will continue to have a negative impact during 2023.
- Commodity producers such as here in Alberta have had a positive impact.
#8 – Inflation - In the summer, Canada reached 8.1% inflation which has come down in November to 6.8%. Hopefully, it will come down over 2023 and get closer to the 2% target!
#7 – Interest Rates - Rob showed a graph of the interest rate increases from .25% to 4.25% in 2022. The expectation is the Bank of Canada is not yet done & a further increase of at least .25% will likely transpire and remain for 6 to 12 months to allow the increases to take hold.
- Higher interest rates are with us for the foreseeable future.
#6 – Same rough waters, different boats - Rob’s preceding comments concerning the Invasion, Inflation & Interest Rates will remain for 2023.
- Alberta is in a little different boat. We have been and will continue to get a little boost in our economy from commodities (Agriculture & O&G).
- Rob showed a graph of the annual % change in Alberta’s real GDP. 2021 – 4.8%; 2022 – 5.0% reducing to annual growth of 2.8% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024. This will be the highest of any province and collectively higher then Canada as a whole.
#5 – Oil and Gas - The importance of O&G extraction as a % of real provincial GP in 2021 was 27.8%.
- Highest production of O&G ever in the province. Strong prices and an expectation is that Oil prices will remain at current levels for 2023.
- Why aren’t we having an Economic boom like previous booms? The reason is there is not the appetite for major capital expenditures as well as the unlikelihood of increased pipelines.
#4 – Agriculture and Agri-Food - Farmers are experiencing higher input costs for fertilizers, chemicals and fuel. However, assuming weather conditions are positive we are hopeful agriculture will remain stable in 2023
#3 – Labour - Our unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national average (5.8% vs 5.0%). This is not a negative aspect as we are pulling people into Alberta because of our relative economy.
- On a national basis 49% of companies say there is a shortage of skilled labour and 36% say there is a shortage of unskilled and semi-skilled labour.
#2 – Population Growth - Net interprovincial migration in Alberta is positive with 9,857 increase during 2022. This will continue due to our strong economy.
- Our population growth is expected to increase from 4.5 million to 5.0 million in the next 5 years and to 5.25 million by 2030.
- This will help drive the economy ie) housing markets etc.
#1 – Long-Term Changes - There are 4 major areas to consider; 1) an aging population 2) major transition in technology, robotics & AI 3) Environmental impacts & our ability to sell our major resource 4) The global economy and geo political consequences.
- The rise of China & India & the rise of the middle class will all have an effect on global economies.
Questions: Duncan Stanners – If you were just starting in the job market, where would be the best places to look? - Technological skills combined with the softer communication & inter relational skills.
Chris Davis - If you are the Assistant Chief Economist, with the departure of Todd Hirsch, who is the Chief? - I didn’t shoot the Sheriff, but I am the Deputy!
- ATB is currently searching for a replacement for Todd…coming soon.
Gerry Meeks expressed the thanks from the club and indicated a donation would be made to Shelterbox in Rob’s name. Mad Minutes Chris Ritter advised our club is proudly sponsoring our Community Hockey Skills Competition Program or Ages 11 -17, all skill levels. They have put on 34 programs this year with a further 20 or so to go. If anyone is interested in helping or coming out to see what’s happening, give Chris a call. Bill Lawless reminded us the Habitat for Humanity casino is January 27 & 28th. He is in need of 8 more volunteers, so please go to our web site and sign up. Dan Doherty advised you can purchase your veggie and hanging plants from NSTEP. This is a fundraiser and our goal this year is to sell $20,000 plants which are to be delivered in early spring. Deadline for orders is January 31st. Dan will send out a 2nd reminder. Linda Anderson – Two Thoughts for the day: For the men: “a man who has committed a mistake & who doesn’t correct it is committing another mistake” – Confucius Kongzi (a woman no doubt). For the women: “some women choose men and some choose to follow their dreams. If you are wondering which way to go, remember your career will never wake you up & tell you it doesn’t love you any more” Lady Gaga (must be a woman, it doesn’t make sense) The meeting was adjourned at 1:00 pm. |
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