Reporter: Chris Davis (the regular 1st meeting of the month Rotary reporter… with acknowledgements to co-reporter “ZOOM AI”)
The January 5th meeting of the Rotary Club of Calgary West saw Club members Alice and Chris Estrella back in Calgary from visiting family in Orange County, CA. Don Beavis introduced today’s visitors and guests, including Catherine McGinley (guest of Joe Klassen), Joanne (guest of Rod) McMahon, exchange student Flavio Antonini and guest of the Club (and Rotary ‘explorer’) Jessica Tsang.
Guest Speaker
Today’s scribe Chris Davis was invited to introduce the guest speaker, Rob Roach, who was introduced as the Deputy Chief Economist at ATB Financial with over 30 years of experience in economic and public policy analysis. Rob's background includes work at the Canada West Foundation and his passion for volunteerism, having previously chaired Canada's leading disability arts organization, the National accessArts Centre.
Tariff Impact on Economic Uncertainty
Rob discussed the economic impact of tariffs, noting that while they are not as severe as initially feared, they are still causing a drag on the Canadian economy. He explained that Canada's effective tariff rate on exports to the US is about 6%, with Alberta facing around 2%. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased, however, leading to psychological effects that can hinder business investment and consumer spending. Rob also touched on other trade disputes, such as the one with China affecting the agricultural sector, and emphasized the need for clarity on trade agreements to reduce uncertainty.
Global Trade and Economic Shifts
Rob discussed the shift from free trade to a more regionalized and divided world, highlighting the impact of tariffs and the Chinese economy's influence. He noted that while inflation has decreased from 8% to around 2%, the cost of living remains high for many, and interest rates have gradually decreased from 5% to 2.25%. Despite these challenges, the stock market has performed well, suggesting a mixed economic landscape.
Canada's Cost of Living Concerns
The discussion then shifted to the cost of living in Canada, with two-thirds of Canadians surveyed reporting it as their top issue, and high levels of concern about meeting basic needs. While there are some positive indicators including lower inflation and decreased rents, the legacy of past inflation remains significant, with grocery prices up by 30% compared to pre-inflation levels. The oil and gas sector in Alberta was discussed, highlighting record oil production and increased exports to markets beyond the United States. Rob noted that capital expenditures and job growth in the sector have remained relatively stable due to increased efficiency and limited pipeline expansion plans.
Alberta's “Still Growing” Economy
On the matter of Alberta's economic outlook, Rob highlighted that while oil prices remain stable at around $60 per barrel, natural gas prices have improved due to increased exports and forecast demand from AI and data centres. The province's population growth has slowed from 5% to 1.5% over recent years, largely due to reduced non-permanent residents, though Alberta still expects to grow by about a million people over the next 15 years, mostly in major urban centres. Economically, Alberta's GDP growth is expected to be 2.3% in 2025, though per capita growth remains below pre-pandemic levels. This leads to a broader national discussion about productivity and trade barriers, with potential solutions including reducing internal trade restrictions, expanding markets beyond the US, and increasing business investment through major projects.
Fixing the Problem of Canada's Economic Growth and Productivity
Rob’s next topic was looking at Canada's economic performance and productivity challenges. Rob presented data showing Canada's economy is growing but at a moderate pace, better than many other countries but not as strong as desired. He highlighted issues such as weak productivity growth, an aging population, and a lack of business investment in technology. The discussion touched on potential solutions like tax reform, reducing interprovincial trade barriers, and improving the education to skills needed mismatch. He also addressed concerns about temporary foreign workers and the impact of declining numbers of non-permanent residents on businesses.
Club Business
All members were reminded by Melody Warman to make sure that our Rotary exchange student Flavio gives an update at the January 12th meeting about his recent experiences, including his Fish Creek Club experiences and moving to a new host Fish Creek host family.
Club President Chris Ritter invited all interested members to attend the tour of Fuse 33 Makerspace on Friday January 9th for a club coffee meeting (rather than at our usual Friday social gathering at the ATCO Blue Flame kitchen).
President Chris closed with a “Dad joke” and a statement that if we "radiate kindness it will come back to you". This statement reflects a universal principle: the energy, actions, and positivity you put out into the world tend to return to you, often magnified, creating a cycle of good. It's about sending out love, compassion, and good vibes, which then attract similar positive experiences, people, and outcomes into your life, like a boomerang effect or sowing seeds for a future harvest.
Until our next meeting on January 12th (with ex-Calgary Flame VP & GM Craig Button as guest speaker), good luck radiating!!
Chris Davis
Reporter
