President Chris called meeting to order at 12:15 and promptly made a presentation to our newest member of the Polio Plus Society, Anita Lakra.
The Polio Plus Society (PPS) is a Rotary program used worldwide to encourage sustainable, recurring giving to the Polio plus Fund until global eradication is achieved. Members are encouraged to pledge a minimum of $100 USD per year (or about $11.50 CAD per month) and receive a PPS pin and certificate as recognition
Congratulations to Anita Lakra our 15th Club Member of the Polio Plus Society.
President Chris led us in O’Canada
Don Beavis introduced our visitors and guests: Jessica Tsang, John Hickie and Asif Abdul from the Millennium Club; Lisa Poole guest of Chris Davis; Bruce Yorga guest of Tim Anderson; Karl Feltmate guest of Chris Ritter. A total of 34 members & guests attended.
Don also took the opportunity to remind us to consider support for RAYEC (Rotary Alberta Youth Entrepreneurship Camp). You can help by;
Donations can be made via rccw.donation@gmail.com - donations $25.00 and over will receive tax receipts. When sending the transfer, include the note “RAYEC” in the message box to ensure it is properly allocated.
Support the Medicine Hat Sunrise Club fundraiser who are selling tickets for:
First prize – ½ side of Beef (cut, wrapped & delivered) value $2,400
Second prize – ¼ side of Beef (cut, wrapped &delivered) value $1.600
Click on the Poster below to buy tickets and full details:
Drew Turnbull introduced our new member Scott Sword
They first met over two years ago when Saadat began planning the 2024 Kenya Safari and a wonderful friendship grew.
“During the Safari, we spent countless hours together in the Land Cruiser. Scott and I always claimed the back seat, where we shared many stories over the miles. By the end of that trip, we had become good friends, and since then, we’ve enjoyed many meals together and even embarked on our own mini-safari to Waterton.”
Scott’s professional background is as impressive as it is diverse. He served in the Royal Canadian Air Force, ran a residential construction business, and more recently retired from Cenovus, where he worked as a Power Engineer and in Health and Safety.
Outside of work, Scott is a man of many passions. He has a daughter from his first relationship and keeps busy with two serious hobbies: his koi pond and his model railroad. The amount of research, design, and hands-on craftsmanship he put into building his heated pond—with a waterfall feature and pump house—is remarkable. The setup is high-tech enough that he can tell you the pond’s exact temperature and other real-time stats at any moment.
“A few other things I’ve learned about Scott: he’s not exactly a sun seeker—he prefers to keep his Saskatchewan skin protected from UV rays—he enjoys a good Scotch (in moderation), and he makes an apple sauce that Roxanne ranks among the best she’s ever tasted.”
Scott has already gotten to know several of our members through meetings and even a field trip outing to Fuse 33 Makerspace. Credit goes to Saadat for suggesting that Scott join Calgary West, and I know we’ll do our best to support him fully as his sponsors.
Past President Rod McMahon provided an excellent induction to Scott. His charge included encouragement to join committees, service projects and fellowship activities.
A warm Calgary West welcome was provided by all.
The induction of Scott Sword into the Rotary Club of Calgary West, highlighting his diverse professional background and personal interests.
Malcolm Harrison introduced our guest speaker Ann-Marie Lurie -Calgary Real Estate Board.
Ann-Marie Lurie
Chief Economist, Economic Analysis Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)
Ann-Marie has over 25 years of experience in the real estate sector. She has worked in several different aspects of real estate including commercial brokerage, pension investment, residential real estate analysis and multi-family underwriting. In 2011 Ann-Marie joined CREB® as the Chief Economist, where she is responsible for scoping, developing, and delivering economic analysis and market intelligence products. Ann-Marie has completed both her BA Honors and MA in Economics from the University of Calgary.
Presentation Highlights:
Migration Trends and Housing Impact
The discussion focused on migration trends and their impact on the housing market. Ann-Marie explained that international migration had peaked due to federal policy but was now declining as fewer students and non-permanent residents were entering the country. Interprovincial migration was also decreasing, with fewer people moving from Ontario and BC due to falling rental rates in other markets. Despite these changes, Calgary's economy was performing well, particularly in the energy sector, which remained a key driver of economic activity.
Calgary's Economic and Housing Outlook
The discussion focused on Calgary's economic outlook and its implications for the housing market. Rotary explained that while the city is expected to continue outperforming the rest of the country at a slower pace, employment numbers are likely to remain stable due to strong previous growth. He noted that the high unemployment rate is partly due to population influx, which he distinguished from job losses, emphasizing that the latter had a more significant impact on housing in 2015. Ann-Marie also discussed the types of jobs being created, highlighting growth in healthcare, social assistance, wholesale retail trade, finance, insurance, and public administration, while manufacturing sector job losses are expected to continue. He concluded that the housing market is not likely to crash, with stable demand expected moving forward, and interest rates are expected to remain flat due to controlled inflation and the absence of a recession.
Real Estate Supply and Demand Shift
Ann-Marie discussed the shifting dynamics of supply and demand in the real estate market, highlighting that while demand remains stable, supply has increased across resale, new homes, and rentals. The rise in rental vacancies and new construction, particularly in high-density areas, has led to a surplus of apartment-style units, impacting investor demand and slowing the transition from renting to ownership. Ann-Marie noted that new home starts are expected to decrease this year as builders scale back due to high inventory, with the pullback primarily affecting high-density projects.
Real Estate Supply and Market Trends
The discussion focused on the current real estate market trends in the city, particularly the impact of new supply in various districts. Ann-Marie highlighted that most supply growth is occurring in newer communities, with significant construction in the Northwest, Southeast, and Southwest areas. This increased supply is contributing to rising vacancy rates, especially in the Northwest, and is expected to lead to downward pressure on rental and resale prices in the coming years. The analysis also noted that while Toronto's rental market offers a more attractive cost-to-quality ratio compared to the city, this advantage has diminished, affecting interprovincial migration trends. Additionally, Ann-Marie explained that the high supply of condos, which often transition to the rental market, along with the rise of secondary suites in newer areas, will further impact rental vacancy rates.
Calgary Housing Market Trends Analysis
Ann-Marie discussed the housing market trends in Calgary, focusing on the differences between row units, apartments, and detached homes. They explained that row units can be scaled back more easily than apartment complexes, leading to slower price decreases in the row unit market. Ann-Marie also noted that detached home prices have remained relatively stable, despite the challenging economic conditions, due to high construction costs and limited land availability for new developments. They highlighted the impact of new supply in surrounding areas like Airdrie and Chestermere, which is starting to affect resale prices in those markets. Overall, Ann-Marie expects the housing market to continue adjusting to increased supply, with potential changes in migration patterns being a key factor that could influence these trends.
Alberta Real Estate Market Trends
The meeting focused on real estate trends and affordability in Alberta, with Ann-Marie presenting an in-depth analysis of the current market situation. She emphasized that while Edmonton is more affordable than other Canadian cities, the key driver is available land for development rather than lower labor costs. Ann-Marie discussed how upzoning initiatives have not significantly improved housing affordability, noting that new construction is primarily occurring in newer communities rather than the inner city. He highlighted that rental construction and supply have helped reduce rents in older properties, though challenges remain in the lower price ranges where supply is scarce. The discussion concluded with questions about seniors housing needs and the potential for city involvement in addressing oversupply issues.
Tim Anderson expressed the thanks of the Club and presented a certificate to Ann Marie acknowledging a contribution made in her name to ShelterBox.
President Chris ended the meeting with his quote of the week suggesting any Realtors in the room would know this one…Who said “Buy land, they're not making it any more”? Answer: Mark Twain!
Lastly for Chris's joke of the week: Did you know the word “gullible” is not in the dictionary? 😊
